WarrenJ Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 I don't expect they'll make it beyond Q3/2009. Tell me why I'm wrong. Regards, Warren There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Nunnally Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 I certainly hope not. GM has been in dire straits before of course, and always managed to squeak by. That said, I think there is a real chance that GM will go out of business. If that happens many auto suppliers will follow, and massive unemployment. It is not clear to me that everyone in Congress understands that or not. The current company situation is not ALL of GM's doing -- they did not cause oil prices to spike, and they did not cause the financial meltdown. At some point GM's factories are worth taking on GM's debt and obligations, so I would guess they will get bought before they just close the doors. The problem will likely be that anyone who buys GM also inherits the labor agreements, so the company may have to go into receiver-ship and the factories sold off as assets to escape the labor obligations? Bruce 2023 Cadillac CT4-V Blackwing Follow me on: Twitter Instagram Youtube Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted October 27, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 At some point GM's factories are worth taking on GM's debt and obligations, so I would guess they will get bought before they just close the doors. The problem will likely be that anyone who buys GM also inherits the labor agreements, so the company may have to go into receiver-ship and the factories sold off as assets to escape the labor obligations? WHO is large enough to purchase GM? There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cadillac Jim Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 Any one of a number of companies is large enough to buy GM. At one point DuPont considered buying GM and a DuPont was CEO of GM. If you are looking at car companies, there are lots of them that are big enough but the problem is the burn rate of the existing structure. If an investment firm such as Cerebus buys GM, the deal would be set by accounting realities and investment criteria, which amounts to very cold cherry-picking of assets, liquidation of whatever isn't attractive, and collection of unsustainable liabilities in the original corporate shell which would go >poof<. In that eventuality we would likely see Cadillac, Chevrolet, Saturn, and other pieces such as Allison, possibly as separate companies, none of which would be called GM. However, look at the meltdown; it began as a domino effect when Lehman Brothers was allowed to disintegrate; nobody thought that they deserved saving, and they likely didn't. A lot of the survivors now don't. But we need to address the consequences of decisions, not just a nearsighted moral decision. As such, I expect that we will see a bailout loan, if necessary, as Chrysler got in the 1960s. The key misdeeds were going with CRA-driven bad loans and repackaging them to disguise high risk, and there is plenty of blame to go around. As part of any bailout agreement, I, as a Congressional participant in the decision, would demand discovery rights and prosecute for fraud any and all that were involved in the repackaging of bad mortgages as low-risk bonds. I'm not a vindictive sort and I would be happy with a fine and probation for most routine offenders, but any and all convicted would be excluded from employment or participation in the financial industry for life -- I just want to see the due process before imposing that penalty on anyone. -- Click Here for CaddyInfo page on "How To" Read Your OBD Codes-- Click Here for my personal page to download my OBD code list as an Excel file, plus other Cadillac data -- See my CaddyInfo car blogs: 2011 CTS-V, 1997 ETC Yes, I was Jims_97_ETC before I changed cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted October 27, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 Any one of a number of companies is large enough to buy GM. WOW! Whouda thuink? There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Nunnally Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 GM's market cap (total shares of stock x cost per share) is $3.3B at the moment. Lots of companies could buy them lock, stock, and barrel. Exxon-Mobil made $10.3B in PROFITS in 3Q2008. Just for the quarter. And they noted that revenues were down, with the storms and all. An oil company strikes me as a good buyer for a car company; plenty of synergy there. Bruce 2023 Cadillac CT4-V Blackwing Follow me on: Twitter Instagram Youtube Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted October 27, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 Yeah, I phrased that wrong. Who would WANT to buy GM today? Is that better? I'm sorry, but this is just an abysmal thing. I really don't see a way around a GM bankruptcy. It's only a matter of time. Only those corporations sitting on a large amount of cash during these trying times will do well. GM is not among those companies. Sadly, Warren There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cadillac Jim Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 A lot of companies such as Microsoft and Raytheon maintain a lock on control by keeping a big block of shares, say 40%, in the hands of "safe" stockholders, such as company co-owners, co-founders, associates, managers, or simply designated individuals who can be counted on not to vote with a stockholder revolt or hostile takeover, and not to sell their shares. This sort of lock, once lost, cannot be easily regained by the mortal. For example, Howard Hughes put Hughes Aircraft Company in the hands of Hughes Medical Foundation in the 1950s so that it could be used to benefit the foundation that he had chartered to deal with his disabilities as their first priority, although of course it had broader horizons. Hughes Aircraft was set up as a non-profit, and like most research type organizations it had a high investment to income ratio -- a lot of plants and equipment. Thus when Howard died, the Medical Foundation saw its interest in Hughes Aircraft as money that would get a better rate of return elsewhere so the sold it to the highest bidder in 1985. GM bought Hughes for the technology transfer, particularly systems engineering for large and complex systems, and for synergy in areas of electronic components development and manufacturing. GM restructured the corporate charter as a for-profit corporation. Eventually GM found that the investment to income ratio of Hughes Aircraft was driving the ratio for the combined company and thus holding down the stock and again sold it to the highest bidder in 2000, which turned out to be Raytheon, a company half its size that incurred $12.5 B in debt to close the deal. GM kept the non-government satellite comms part and spun it off; that's DirecTV. The government satellite and helicopter portions were sold to Boeing. The research laboratory in Malibu is jointly owned by Raytheon and Boeing. The radar parts are now divisions of Raytheon. Does anyone know anything about the stockholder situation at GM? If GM has a lock on controlling shareholders, it will never lose its identity or lose control of its destiny. If anyone with $2B can take control, GM's fate is in the winds. -- Click Here for CaddyInfo page on "How To" Read Your OBD Codes-- Click Here for my personal page to download my OBD code list as an Excel file, plus other Cadillac data -- See my CaddyInfo car blogs: 2011 CTS-V, 1997 ETC Yes, I was Jims_97_ETC before I changed cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted October 27, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 Does anyone know anything about the stockholder situation at GM? If GM has a lock on controlling shareholders, it will never lose its identity or lose control of its destiny. If anyone with $2B can take control, GM's fate is in the winds. GM was headed towards bankruptcy months ago. The current market crisis will only expedite the inevitable. I'm going to take a look under my mattress for a spare billion or so; if you find another one under your mattress, perhaps we can do a deal. It's important to note that Warren Buffett is not standing by with an open checkbook. Kerkorian has found himself slapped sillywise. Ford was not his friend. These things do not bode well. There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranger Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 The problem will likely be that anyone who buys GM also inherits the labor agreements, Chapter 11 will take care of those. Then the labor agreements get renegotiated or in the absence of an agreement one will be imposed upon the UAW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted October 27, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 The problem will likely be that anyone who buys GM also inherits the labor agreements, Chapter 11 will take care of those. Then the labor agreements get renegotiated or in the absence of an agreement one will be imposed upon the UAW. Warren Buffett is not buying GM. When a vulture capitalist fails to even cast a weak glance at something that is lying bleeding in the streets, neither should you. Regards, Warren There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BodybyFisher Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 No one is going to buy GM, GM will go bankrupt like many of the airlines did to unravel the union contracts, debt, pensions, etc, etc etc that is encumbering them, and then they will come back to life just like the airlines did. This is the ONLY way they can compete with the foreign manufacturers that are NOT encumbered Pre-1995 - DTC codes OBD1 >> 1996 and newer - DTC codes OBD2 >> https://www.obd-codes.com/trouble_codes/gm/obd_codes.htm How to check for codes Caddyinfo How To Technical Archive >> http://www.caddyinfo.com/wordpress/cadillac-how-to-faq/ Cadillac History & Specifications Year by Year http://www.motorera.com/cadillac/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted October 27, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 Yes, General Motors will go bankrupt. Will they rise from the ashes like a Phoenix? Probably not. History is upon us. Regards, Warren There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted October 28, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2008 What you face: http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y299/WBucket/Halloween.jpg There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BodybyFisher Posted October 28, 2008 Report Share Posted October 28, 2008 Well I have to admit, GM, will be gone. My friend, who sold me my 91 and 96, who LOVED cadillac, now owns Lexus, he said there is NO comparison, Lexus is a much better car, GM is prone to problems. Sell your stock. Cadillac will survive, it will be made in China, by a Chinese car manufacturer. Pre-1995 - DTC codes OBD1 >> 1996 and newer - DTC codes OBD2 >> https://www.obd-codes.com/trouble_codes/gm/obd_codes.htm How to check for codes Caddyinfo How To Technical Archive >> http://www.caddyinfo.com/wordpress/cadillac-how-to-faq/ Cadillac History & Specifications Year by Year http://www.motorera.com/cadillac/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimD Posted October 28, 2008 Report Share Posted October 28, 2008 No matter who goes under (Ford, GM, or Chrysler), the loss of assembly and parts supplier jobs in the Mid-West will continue and get worse. All three automakers cannot survive as viable corporations in the current (and 5 years into the future) economic environment. Look for Paulson to throw a life vest to the auto industry. There is precedent. Maybe the silver lining is -- 25% to 40% of the affiliated dealer network will also fail. The weakest dealers will be gone. Jim Drive your car. Use your cell phone. CHOOSE ONE ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted October 28, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2008 It's conceivable the Lexus may be a better car, but I've ZERO complaints regarding my last four Caddys (not counting the one that burned to the ground. ). There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cadillac Jim Posted October 28, 2008 Report Share Posted October 28, 2008 Yeah, my 1997 Eldorado has been amazingly trouble-free, except for the pulled head bolt . The only real work I've had done other than a reman engine is a new radiator, a brake job at 130,000 miles, and transmission servicing every 30,000 miles. It's still my daily driver and I still have a lead foot. And, everything works and I have no codes. Uh, the rain sensor has gradually become less and less sensitive over the years, but the windshield is so sand-pocked at 11 years that it's on my maintenance list, with rain sensor attached. My next car is years ahead, but I'm already thinking a used Cadillac. -- Click Here for CaddyInfo page on "How To" Read Your OBD Codes-- Click Here for my personal page to download my OBD code list as an Excel file, plus other Cadillac data -- See my CaddyInfo car blogs: 2011 CTS-V, 1997 ETC Yes, I was Jims_97_ETC before I changed cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BodybyFisher Posted October 28, 2008 Report Share Posted October 28, 2008 Well I have replaced everything, it leaks oil, needs rear knuckles, the gas gage is inaccurate, has a knock as did my 91, needs the EGR cleaned twice a year, the radio sucks, the struts are prohibitively expensive, it does not have flash to pass, and the seat trim broke again after I replaced it. Lets not forget those who have TCC engagement problems, low oil pressure at idle, leaking case halfs, leaking trunks, brake shudder and head gasket fears. The Northstar has been around since 93, it should be bullet proof by now. How do they stop using the DOG BONES on the SEVILLE, accountants? Its time that Ford goes out of business, as they have had a BETTER IDEA for a long time, build it cheap, soft and unpredictible, Chrysler hangs its hat on 50 year old engine technology in the HEMI that sucks gas, and GM builds a Buick that is as exciting as watching paint dry, and puts out 3100 and 3400 Chevy engines that have bad intake manifold gaskets, and they continue having intermediate steering shaft problems. Its time, you don't adapt, you fail. GM, FORD and CHRYSLER will all be gone shortly, its over. The good parts of GM will be sold off and built in China or Dubai, like the Jaguar being built in India by TaTa motors.. Change is coming, change change change. Invest in Gold, save money, protect yourself. Im still looking for an STS however Pre-1995 - DTC codes OBD1 >> 1996 and newer - DTC codes OBD2 >> https://www.obd-codes.com/trouble_codes/gm/obd_codes.htm How to check for codes Caddyinfo How To Technical Archive >> http://www.caddyinfo.com/wordpress/cadillac-how-to-faq/ Cadillac History & Specifications Year by Year http://www.motorera.com/cadillac/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BodybyFisher Posted October 28, 2008 Report Share Posted October 28, 2008 Yeah, my 1997 Eldorado has been amazingly trouble-free, except for the pulled head bolt . The only real work I've had done other than a reman engine Yea thats pretty amazing, a pulled head bolt and a remanufactured engine.... Pre-1995 - DTC codes OBD1 >> 1996 and newer - DTC codes OBD2 >> https://www.obd-codes.com/trouble_codes/gm/obd_codes.htm How to check for codes Caddyinfo How To Technical Archive >> http://www.caddyinfo.com/wordpress/cadillac-how-to-faq/ Cadillac History & Specifications Year by Year http://www.motorera.com/cadillac/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BodybyFisher Posted October 28, 2008 Report Share Posted October 28, 2008 It's conceivable the Lexus may be a better car, but I've ZERO complaints regarding my last four Caddys (not counting the one that burned to the ground. ). Yes thats amazing also, luckily it was not in your garage when it burned to the ground because the FUEL RAIL BURST... Pre-1995 - DTC codes OBD1 >> 1996 and newer - DTC codes OBD2 >> https://www.obd-codes.com/trouble_codes/gm/obd_codes.htm How to check for codes Caddyinfo How To Technical Archive >> http://www.caddyinfo.com/wordpress/cadillac-how-to-faq/ Cadillac History & Specifications Year by Year http://www.motorera.com/cadillac/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BodybyFisher Posted October 28, 2008 Report Share Posted October 28, 2008 Here is the future http://www.audiusa.com/audi/us/en2.html I once heard an interesting comment, yea the CTS-Vs won, but AUDI didn't show up.... Drive an S5 when you get a chance, or even JUST LISTEN to one, GD car gives me an erection. http://www.audiusa.com/audi/us/en2/new_cars/Audi_A5.html Love is illogical and we love our Cadillacs, but when you get down to it, the cold hard facts hurt. GM is a 700 pound elephant, that could not move quick enough to survive, they CUT the Eldorado, and Olds but keep the HUMMER when they have GMC? How the hell long does it take to produce a two door CTS? Where is the CAMARO? Firebird? What took so long to get 6 speed trannies? We want to be negative? Hows that for negative? How about the GETRAG rear differentials on the CTSs, and now the TIMING CHAIN problems on the 3.6s... Great stuff huh? How the F does stuff like that happen? There is NO excuse for a car manufacturer competing with Lexus, BMW, Audi etc. Grab QUALITY CONTROL by the THROAT. I would immediately FIRE GM's marketing firm, they create no excitement at all Pre-1995 - DTC codes OBD1 >> 1996 and newer - DTC codes OBD2 >> https://www.obd-codes.com/trouble_codes/gm/obd_codes.htm How to check for codes Caddyinfo How To Technical Archive >> http://www.caddyinfo.com/wordpress/cadillac-how-to-faq/ Cadillac History & Specifications Year by Year http://www.motorera.com/cadillac/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted October 28, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2008 Yeah, my 1997 Eldorado has been amazingly trouble-free, except for the pulled head bolt . The only real work I've had done other than a reman engine is a new radiator, a brake job at 130,000 miles, and transmission servicing every 30,000 miles. It's still my daily driver and I still have a lead foot. And, everything works and I have no codes. Uh, the rain sensor has gradually become less and less sensitive over the years, but the windshield is so sand-pocked at 11 years that it's on my maintenance list, with rain sensor attached. My next car is years ahead, but I'm already thinking a used Cadillac. I had to put air in my right rear tire last Thursday. That really ticked me off! There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted October 28, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2008 It's conceivable the Lexus may be a better car, but I've ZERO complaints regarding my last four Caddys (not counting the one that burned to the ground. ). Yes thats amazing also, luckily it was not in your garage when it burned to the ground because the FUEL RAIL BURST... Mike, A few weeks after that happened I spoke with a co-worker who told me about his cousin having died when his car caught fire at speed on the highway. You'll recall I joked about it at the time, but it was a good thing it happened while I was doing no more than 20mph. Regards, Warren EDIT: For the curious . . . There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BodybyFisher Posted October 28, 2008 Report Share Posted October 28, 2008 I am not sure how he could die from that, but that is terrible You know, I think GM/Cadillac is full of crap. They bill the CTS as having been PROVEN on Nurburgring racetrack, yea?, then how does the GETRAG differential get into the production car? How does it end up with WHEEL HOP? How does the timing chain end up being a problem in the 3.6? I am sick and tired of hearing that it was the SUPPLIER. Something is wrong with them, its like they want to shoot themselves in the foot. Pre-1995 - DTC codes OBD1 >> 1996 and newer - DTC codes OBD2 >> https://www.obd-codes.com/trouble_codes/gm/obd_codes.htm How to check for codes Caddyinfo How To Technical Archive >> http://www.caddyinfo.com/wordpress/cadillac-how-to-faq/ Cadillac History & Specifications Year by Year http://www.motorera.com/cadillac/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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