WarrenJ Posted November 21, 2009 Report Share Posted November 21, 2009 On so many websites, so many days, I hear the same silliness repeated day after day. Your various cable networks, magazines etc. are beholden to Wall Street advertisers. Can you honestly believe they are giving you the truth, or looking out for your best interests? The answer is a RESOUNDING NO! If you have any control whatsoever over your investments, it is imperative you NOT listen to these folk. Purchase a subscription to an investment advisory service. They are immune to advertisement revenue and depend on you renewing your subscription because they have made you money. If they fail, you do not renew. This is critically important TODAY! There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OynxSTS Posted November 21, 2009 Report Share Posted November 21, 2009 I would add the most important person to get advice from might be your parents. Someone who has lived through things and who can remember cause and effect. Then ask yourself the question why? and try and figure it out... that will lead you to obvious investment opportunities that everyone else says "we never saw it coming". For example in 2007, and early last year, why did the Canadian Dollar gain almost 30% in value vs the American Dollar? Was it debt? Spending? or Government Policy? The answers are no no and no. The driver was the price of Oil and suddenly you discover what most Americans have missed, that most of your oil comes from Alberta and the tar sands, a little research and you will discover that you can only extract oil from the tar sands profitably IF a barrel of oil is worth more then $60. So if the price of oil is north of $60 the Canadian Dollar will take off. Less then that and it will tank. So you can see the Canadian dollar is tied almost directly to the America's use of oil. When your economy collapses the Canadian economy tanks. Some on this forum have talked about investing in Aussie dollars. Cause they seem strong right now. OK... but don't forget to ask that why question... Why? Is it debt? Spending? or Government Policy? The answers are no no and no. The Aussi dollar is driven by the exports of coal and iron to Japan and China, with most of the growth coming from China. Like Canada's oil there is a "tipping" point for Aussi coil and iron where their mines will shut down and the Aussi dollar will collapse. Here you can see that when the Japanese or Chinese economies are in trouble then the Aussi dollar takes a beating and exactly this happened with the last Japanese recession. OK, thats all history, what is going on now? Well, it is pretty hard to miss that China is lending the USA money like crazy (and has been since the Reagan presidency). Why? If you believe Mr Beck and others the dollar is about to collapse (and maybe it is), so why would smart Chinese investors lend money to a country that they know is on the verge of collapse? There are two reasons: 1) they are stupid (and we have seen this before) or 2) The is something else at play here. If you assume that they aren't all stupid, then what is driving this... Well take a look at what the US exports to China and focus on good that they don't immediately "value add" and then ship back (like, raw plastic, or semi conductors). What do you see? Soy Beans, Wheat, Corn, and Vegetable based Oils. With EXPLOSIVE growth in Corn and "Food Oils" since 2005. Yup, it looks to me like China is planning to use America to feed its 1 billion plus people. The government debt gives them HUGE leverage to ensure the food keeps coming. If you believe that the world is getting warmer, then you will note that much of China is too hot and too dry to grow food and parts that are arid and wet are way too polluted to grow anything that you would want to eat. Now might be a good time to invest in food production or food export stocks. As the tag ling goes, you gotta eat. One thing I'm trying to figure out right now is why (there is that word again) haven't housing prices in Vancouver collapsed like just about everywhere else in the free world. My wife and I bought our house, a 3000 sqft "fixer upper" on a 1/3 of an acre 13 years ago for about $250,000 (US) a house across the street on a smaller lot, with a smaller house just sold for $800,000 (US). The house next door is for sale for $1.4 million. And these homes are SELLING... the $800,000 house was on the market for 3 days before it sold! WTF? The wife is convinced that it is the Olympics that is propping everything up and that the bottom will fallout after the games. Maybe she is right, the games have been a HUGE boom to Vancouver and have helped keep people working and have kept our economy going, but I don't see why a house in rainy cold and wet Vancouver is worth more then the same house on the sunny side of Maui. Anyone have any ideas? Why do you think that Real estate continues to climb in Vancouver in the middle of a recession? Easin' down the highway in a new Cadillac, I had a fine fox in front, I had three more in the back ZZTOP, I'm Bad I'm Nationwide Greg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted November 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2009 Now might be a good time to invest in food production or food export stocks. As the tag ling goes, you gotta eat. I could be wrong, but I think it was Warren Buffet who recently noted Asia, as a result of its increasing living standard, will be increasingly importing chicken. He recommended grains on his list of priority purchases. I believe he said something like, "chicken is just corn in a different bag." Then again, maybe it was someone else, but I don't think so. Regards, Warren There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cadillac Jim Posted November 21, 2009 Report Share Posted November 21, 2009 I think a lot of these "news" services are basically executing a "pump and dump" scheme. -- Click Here for CaddyInfo page on "How To" Read Your OBD Codes-- Click Here for my personal page to download my OBD code list as an Excel file, plus other Cadillac data -- See my CaddyInfo car blogs: 2011 CTS-V, 1997 ETC Yes, I was Jims_97_ETC before I changed cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted November 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2009 Some on this forum have talked about investing in Aussie dollars. Cause they seem strong right now. OK... but don't forget to ask that why question... Why? Is it debt? Spending? or Government Policy? The answers are no no and no. The Aussi dollar is driven by the exports of coal and iron to Japan and China, with most of the growth coming from China. Like Canada's oil there is a "tipping" point for Aussi coil and iron where their mines will shut down and the Aussi dollar will collapse. Here you can see that when the Japanese or Chinese economies are in trouble then the Aussi dollar takes a beating and exactly this happened with the last Japanese recession. Once again I risk being wrong. I think China's GDP numbers are fraudulent. China's is an export economy whose exports have dropped for eleven straight months in a row. Electricity usage has similarly dropped. This is good?? How can electricity usage drop and GDP expand? China is stimulating its domestic economy with free wheeling unsupervised lending (sound familiar?). This cannot be sustained (sound familiar?). The Aussie/Japanese currency story is fascinating. It will have to wait for another day. Regards, Warren There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted November 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2009 I think a lot of these "news" services are basically executing a "pump and dump" scheme. Possible, but the big question is: are they doing it consciously and deliberately? If the answer is "yes," we'll need to freshen up some jail cells. Regards, Warren There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted November 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2009 I would add the most important person to get advice from might be your parents. Someone who has lived through things and who can remember cause and effect. Then ask yourself the question why? and try and figure it out... that will lead you to obvious investment opportunities that everyone else says "we never saw it coming". For example in 2007, and early last year, why did the Canadian Dollar gain almost 30% in value vs the American Dollar? Was it debt? Spending? or Government Policy? The answers are no no and no. The driver was the price of Oil and suddenly you discover what most Americans have missed, that most of your oil comes from Alberta and the tar sands, a little research and you will discover that you can only extract oil from the tar sands profitably IF a barrel of oil is worth more then $60. So if the price of oil is north of $60 the Canadian Dollar will take off. Less then that and it will tank. So you can see the Canadian dollar is tied almost directly to the America's use of oil. When your economy collapses the Canadian economy tanks. Some on this forum have talked about investing in Aussie dollars. Cause they seem strong right now. OK... but don't forget to ask that why question... Why? Is it debt? Spending? or Government Policy? The answers are no no and no. The Aussi dollar is driven by the exports of coal and iron to Japan and China, with most of the growth coming from China. Like Canada's oil there is a "tipping" point for Aussi coil and iron where their mines will shut down and the Aussi dollar will collapse. Here you can see that when the Japanese or Chinese economies are in trouble then the Aussi dollar takes a beating and exactly this happened with the last Japanese recession. I'm guessing you mean the Japanese recession that began in 1991 and continues to this day? Australia is in a unique position to export to all of Asia, not just China and Japan. In addition, the rest of the world is part of its oyster as well. Regards, Warren There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted November 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2009 I would add the most important person to get advice from might be your parents. Someone who has lived through things and who can remember cause and effect. If you are fortunate enough to have them, ask your grandparents first. If your parents are "baby boomers," ask to borrow from them. Regards, Warren There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OynxSTS Posted November 21, 2009 Report Share Posted November 21, 2009 I would add the most important person to get advice from might be your parents. Someone who has lived through things and who can remember cause and effect. If you are fortunate enough to have them, ask your grandparents first. If your parents are "baby boomers," ask to borrow from them. Regards, Warren Agreed, most of my best investing advice came from my grandfather, he passed in 2005. He was instrumental in timing my house purchase, and we NAILED the bottom of the market then... If he was alive I post the same question to him that I asked above: My wife and I bought our house, a 3000 sqft "fixer upper" on a 1/3 of an acre 13 years ago for about $250,000 (US) a house across the street on a smaller lot, with a smaller house just sold for $800,000 (US). The house next door is for sale for $1.4 million. And these homes are SELLING... the $800,000 house was on the market for 3 days before it sold! WTF? The wife is convinced that it is the Olympics that is propping everything up and that the bottom will fallout after the games. Maybe she is right, the games have been a HUGE boom to Vancouver and have helped keep people working and have kept our economy going, but I don't see why a house in rainy cold and wet Vancouver is worth more then the same house on the sunny side of Maui. Anyone have any ideas? Why do you think that Real estate continues to climb in Vancouver in the middle of a global recession? And my parents are at the front edge of the boomers, and they usually get loans from me. Easin' down the highway in a new Cadillac, I had a fine fox in front, I had three more in the back ZZTOP, I'm Bad I'm Nationwide Greg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted November 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2009 I would add the most important person to get advice from might be your parents. Someone who has lived through things and who can remember cause and effect. If you are fortunate enough to have them, ask your grandparents first. If your parents are "baby boomers," ask to borrow from them. Regards, Warren Agreed, most of my best investing advice came from my grandfather, he passed in 2005. He was instrumental in timing my house purchase, and we NAILED the bottom of the market then... If he was alive I post the same question to him that I asked above: My wife and I bought our house, a 3000 sqft "fixer upper" on a 1/3 of an acre 13 years ago for about $250,000 (US) a house across the street on a smaller lot, with a smaller house just sold for $800,000 (US). The house next door is for sale for $1.4 million. And these homes are SELLING... the $800,000 house was on the market for 3 days before it sold! WTF? The wife is convinced that it is the Olympics that is propping everything up and that the bottom will fallout after the games. Maybe she is right, the games have been a HUGE boom to Vancouver and have helped keep people working and have kept our economy going, but I don't see why a house in rainy cold and wet Vancouver is worth more then the same house on the sunny side of Maui. Anyone have any ideas? Why do you think that Real estate continues to climb in Vancouver in the middle of a global recession? And my parents are at the front edge of the boomers, and they usually get loans from me. I'm certain my life is poorer for not having met your grandfather. Your parents are lucky folk. Regards, Warren There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenJ Posted November 23, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2009 "A CNN Dog And Pony Show." Why megastar Maria Bartiromo refuses to be interviewed for anything but puff pieces http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/2215/Guru Regards, Warren There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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