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GM BAILOUT


JACK

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Absolutely not.

The Detroit Three are teetering so close to the edge of bankruptcy that it would be stupid to buy stock. Once they declare bankruptcy, the stock value goes to zero and stays there.

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Some stocks of bankrupt companies do not have value accrued to them in the restructuring, or when the company is liquidated and its customer base and contracts are bought by another company. This is pretty extreme and happens when a company's liabilities and debts far exceed the liquidation value of the company or its value based on future earning potential, and stock equity becomes part of the unsustainable debt. I don't believe it's possible that any of the Big 3 will be able to go that far into debt. However, what does happen to the stock is anyone's guess.

The best of all possible worlds is that the existing capitalization structure survives any reorganization, with or without bankruptcy, consolidations, or shell-and-pea games as happened when GM sold Hughes to Raytheon. I think that this is unlikely because the assets and liabilities lines will cross in less than two months. If I were managing a Big 3 company I would have the papers all drawn up and ready to sign so that they could be filed in an hour's notice. As soon as Congress' will is known I would take appropriate action. Better to go into Chapter 11 solvent than insolvent.

If you have a small percentage of your portfolio to play with and want to buy GM or Ford stock, sure, why not. I've been known to buy a lottery ticket, too -- but I can't remember when. I would discuss it at length with my financial advisers before I did anything serious, though. Remember, stock prices are set by professionals who have far more resources to evaluate the odds of gain or loss than you or I can imagine.

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If you did well with Enron stock you might try a repeat with GM stock. Otherwise it's simply too dangerous.

I'd guess Jim's lottery ticket suggestion would be a better bet.

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There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Ludwig von Mises

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