Global Warming

[WarrenJ]

I've always been suspicious of the AGW proponents. Not because of their science, but rather because I fear they have a political motive that may cloud their view. Recall, they previously brought us "Global Cooling, Drought, Famine, Overpopulation etc. All for naught (well, except for the Population part).

Further, there are extraordinary amounts of money involved. It's conceivable even innocent corruption might occur.

The U.N. in my humble, and very possibly wrong view, seeks to transfer wealth from the "developed" to the "undeveloped" countries. That should not surprise you given who holds the reins at Turtle Bay.

If AGW is upon us, we'd best learn how to deal with it; trying to stop it is fruitless. I'd prefer to see monies invested in irrigation, fertilizers, geothermal energy etc.

Regards,

Warren

[Bruce Nunnally]

The British scientist at the heart of a scandal over climate-change research temporarily stepped down Tuesday as director of a prominent research group amid an internal probe that follows the release of hacked emails involving him and other scientists.

The University of East Anglia in the U.K. said Phil Jones, head of the university's Climatic Research Unit, had decided to step aside from the director's post.

The announcement comes less than a week before world leaders are set to meet for a climate summit in Copenhagen. The two-week conference, sponsored by the United Nations, is supposed to come up with tougher policies to curb greenhouse-gas emissions and slow global warming.

Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125970198500271683.html

[WarrenJ]

Sadly, this has cast a pall on science.

Without regard to your political affiliation, or your reverence for science, this is very sad.

Regards,

Warren

[MAC]

The CO2 global warming hoax is a criminal enterprise. How many lied before Congress and lied in order to receive funds in order to perpetrate the biggest scientific fraud ever. I want to see the perpetrators prosecuted. At the very least, the ring leaders should loose their jobs and be blacklisted from ever obtaining another job in the field of science.

[Cadillac Jim]

I've always been suspicious of the science because of the science, as presented. The publications that I have seen have all been correlation proofs, which show that as one thing changes, another changes. This is *not* a proof of cause and effect, much less a proof of sole cause.

I would like to see the numbers: Joules of heat energy in, Joules of heat energy out, mass in the model, thermal capacity of the mass, with the result of rate of temperature change:

dT/dt = (Pin - Pout)/(Mass X ThermCap)

This is easier than it sounds. Only about the top 1,000 feet of the ocean changes temperature even with time in the tens of years (the depth to the deep sound channel, or minimum acoustic propagation velocity, or to the point of constant temperature). Pro-rating that mass linearly with depth will give a mass, and the thermal capacity (number of Joules of energy required to change the temperature of 1 kb by 1 degree Centigrade) of sea water is well known. This may be all you need for a first cut, but a similar quick cut can be made for land mass.

The energy in is simple to measure -- from space. Measurements of the sun's radiance across the spectrum provide the energy density per square meter of radiant energy, and the cross section area of the Earth completes the equation for the energy in. Measurements of Earth's radiance from reflection and radiation from space on the sunlit and dark sides provide measurements of energy out.

At a minimum, such a model will provide us with a good idea of the amount of energy required to change the mean surface temperature by a degree Centigrade (which is 9/5 times the amount required to change the temperature by 1 degree Fahrenheit), the Sun's energy input, and the energy radiated by the sun.

Measurements of the sun's radiant energy over a sunspot cycle can provide insight on what effects changes there would have over the centuries, particularly the Little Ice Age and other eras that might help improve our understanding of macroclimatic changes. Measurement of the Earth's radiance over time will help us understand the true effects of greenhouse gases.

I have seen none of this. Perhaps now that the debate has finally opened up, we may see some actual science applied to the issues.

[WarrenJ]

Correlation proofs are meaningless. They are the orphaned red-headed children of causation.

I'm not yet uncertain about GW; AGW remains to be proven. Previous episodes of GW, I think, didn't involve SUVs roaming the Gobi or Sahara in past millennia.

Have a look here:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/08/the-...at-darwin-zero/

Now I realize it's somewhat technical, so I would advise the non-tech folk to look only at Figure #8 and its surrounding text.

This is bankrupt science. At least in Australia, if the report is to be believed.

Regards,

Warren

[BodybyFisher]

Here is proof that alarmists love to grab on to this subject. These people love contemplating their navels

December 16, 2009

'New York Times, 128 years of looming polar doom: '

Ben-Peter Terpstra

Why is climate change natural? For some family holiday fun, pick your favorite reason. Thanks to the United Kingdom's Daily Express - there are 100 choices!

For some extremely subversive fun - but be careful now - read Tim Blair's sixteen reasons for laughing at The New York Times (aka The Church of Global Warming) in Australia:

From the New York Times, 128 years of looming polar doom:

• 1881: "This past Winter, both inside and outside the Arctic circle, appears to have been unusually mild. The ice is very light and rapidly melting ..."

• 1932: "NEXT GREAT DELUGE FORECAST BY SCIENCE; Melting Polar Ice Caps to Raise the Level of Seas and Flood the Continents"

• 1934: "New Evidence Supports Geology's View That the Arctic Is Growing Warmer"

• 1937: "Continued warm weather at the Pole, melting snow and ice."

• 1954: "The particular point of inquiry concerns whether the ice is melting at such a rate as to imperil low-lying coastal areas through raising the level of the sea in the near future."

• 1957: "U.S. Arctic Station Melting"

• 1958: "At present, the Arctic ice pack is melting away fast. Some estimates say that it is 40 per cent thinner and 12 per cent smaller than it was fifteen years [ago]."

• 1959: "Will the Arctic Ocean soon be free of ice?"

• 1971: "STUDY SAYS MAN ALTERS CLIMATE; U.N. Report Links Melting of Polar Ice to His Activities"

• 1979: "A puzzling haze over the Arctic ice packs has been identified as a byproduct of air pollution, a finding that may support predictions of a disastrous melting of the earth's ice caps."

• 1982: "Because of global heating attributed to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide from fuel burning, about 20,000 cubic miles of polar ice has melted in the past 40 years, apparently contributing to a rise in sea levels ..."

And so on.

(Hat Tip: The Australian Conservative. Full disclosure: I am a contributor.)

[BodybyFisher]

THEN.... after touting that the polar cap is melting in 1971 and 1979, in 1975, this was on the front page of NEWSWEEK

http://sweetness-light.com/archive/newswee...-coming-ice-age

Here is the PDF file >> http://sweetness-light.com/newsweek_coolingworld.pdf

1975 Newsweek: The Coming Ice Age

From the now notorious April 28, 1975 issue of Newsweek (a pdf file):

The Cooling World

By Peter Gwynne

28 April 1975

There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production — with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now. The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas — parts of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia — where the growing season is dependent upon the rains brought by the monsoon.

The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it. In England, farmers have seen their growing season decline by about two weeks since 1950, with a resultant overall loss in grain production estimated at up to 100,000 tons annually.

During the same time, the average temperature around the equator has risen by a fraction of a degree — a fraction that in some areas can mean drought and desolation. Last April, in the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded, 148 twisters killed more than 300 people and caused half a billion dollars’ worth of damage in 13 U.S. states.

To scientists, these seemingly disparate incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental changes in the world’s weather. Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the trend, as well as over its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century. If the climatic change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic.

“A major climatic change would force economic and social adjustments on a worldwide scale,” warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, “because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century.”

A survey completed last year by Dr. Murray Mitchell of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reveals a drop of half a degree in average ground temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968. According to George Kukla of Columbia University, satellite photos indicated a sudden, large increase in Northern Hemisphere snow cover in the winter of 1971-72. And a study released last month by two NOAA scientists notes that the amount of sunshine reaching the ground in the continental U.S. diminished by 1.3% between 1964 and 1972.

To the layman, the relatively small changes in temperature and sunshine can be highly misleading. Reid Bryson of the University of Wisconsin points out that the Earth’s average temperature during the great Ice Ages was only about seven degrees lower than during its warmest eras — and that the present decline has taken the planet about a sixth of the way toward the Ice Age average.

Others regard the cooling as a reversion to the “little ice age” conditions that brought bitter winters to much of Europe and northern America between 1600 and 1900 — years when the Thames used to freeze so solidly that Londoners roasted oxen on the ice and when iceboats sailed the Hudson River almost as far south as New York City.

Just what causes the onset of major and minor ice ages remains a mystery. “Our knowledge of the mechanisms of climatic change is at least as fragmentary as our data,” concedes the National Academy of Sciences report. “Not only are the basic scientific questions largely unanswered, but in many cases we do not yet know enough to pose the key questions.”

Meteorologists think that they can forecast the short-term results of the return to the norm of the last century. They begin by noting the slight drop in overall temperature that produces large numbers of pressure centers in the upper atmosphere. These break up the smooth flow of westerly winds over temperate areas. The stagnant air produced in this way causes an increase in extremes of local weather such as droughts, floods, extended dry spells, long freezes, delayed monsoons and even local temperature increases — all of which have a direct impact on food supplies.

“The world’s food-producing system,” warns Dr. James D. McQuigg of NOAA’s Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment, “is much more sensitive to the weather variable than it was even five years ago.”

Furthermore, the growth of world population and creation of new national boundaries make it impossible for starving peoples to migrate from their devastated fields, as they did during past famines.

Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects.

They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies. The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.

Lest we forget just how wrong the climate experts can be.

It’s funny isn’t it?

Everyone complains about the weather, but only liberals try to legislate it.

[WarrenJ]

It's funny isn't it?

Everyone complains about the weather, but only liberals try to legislate it.

[Cadillac Jim]

I read about a year ago that Nancy Pelosi and Hillary were overheard talking about a "legislative solution" to Rush Limbaugh's talk show and its following, and sure enough they tried to resurrect the "fairness doctrine" law from the 1950's that basically said that anyone who disagreed with something they heard in the media was entitled to equal time, free. Although this seems to be a violation of the 1st Amendment, some argue that unpaid political announcements are subject to this and that has never been successfully challenged by the Supreme Court. Others say that the 1st Amendment mentions free speech and free press, but nothing is said about air time; arguably the radio and TV media are part of the Fourth Estate and are covered, and this type of issue is why we have the Supreme Court. We routinely allow the "out" party to "answer" the annual State of the Union Address to Congress. But the fact that these talk shows are sponsored entertainment and not media positions and thus is clearly free speech as addressed by the 1st Amendment is totally lost in the discussion of a "legislative remedy."

The fact that some politicians seem to act as if everything has a "legislative solution" reminds me of attempts to legislate the value of pi to simplify schooling, architecture, etc. For a good time, do a web search on "legislate value of pi" and click on a few links. A selection:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Pi_Bill

http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/805/did-a-state-legislature-once-pass-a-law-saying-pi-equals-3

http://www.snopes.com/religion/pi.asp

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~jlawler/aux/pi.htm

l

The fact that this almost happened in Indiana in 1897 and that people believed it in 1998 is that legislators do stupid things like that all the time. And worse. See

http://www.dumblaws.com/

The fact that now Congress thinks that they can legislate the weather is right in character. More serious is the frenzy of those chasing the money, or simply trying to bring down the economies of the industrialized countries, which has been building since the early 1990's.

[WarrenJ]

http://www.dumblaws.com/

The fact that now Congress thinks that they can legislate the weather is right in character. More serious is the frenzy of those chasing the money, or simply trying to bring down the economies of the industrialized countries, which has been building since the early 1990's.

Jim,

I enjoyed the link.

Extraordinary amounts of money and power are involved in the AGW theory. On that basis alone it's correct to be skeptical.

Me too, I'm skeptibull.

Regards,

Warren

[WarrenJ]

The fact that some politicians seem to act as if everything has a "legislative solution" reminds me of attempts to legislate the value of pi to simplify schooling, architecture, etc.

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_the_valu...e_decimal_place

Transcendentally yours,

Warren

[WarrenJ]

"Blizzard Dumps Snow on Copenhagen as Leaders Battle Warming"

Laugh, laugh, laugh . . .

. . . First white Copenhagen Christmas in 14 years. Only 7 in last century. . . .

. . . OBAMA! arrives tomorrow.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a5wStc0K6jhY

Simultaneously, a snowstorm approaches Washington, D.C.

Oh, the wonderful irony.

[BodybyFisher]

You gotta love it, I hope they freeze their butts off

[WarrenJ]

Just outta curiosity . . . ya think G*d has a sense of humor? It might be that He does. Or so it would seem.

Ya think He's a liberal? Yeah, me neither.

DISCLAIMER: I don't belong to any organized religion.

Regards,

Warren

[BodybyFisher]

I was going to post above, Ahh, there is a God!

[WarrenJ]

Ahh, there is a God!

And He clearly loves you!

[WarrenJ]

DC snowstorm forces Pelosi to cut short her global warming trip...

"Copenhagen (CNN) – In a strange twist, a Washington snowstorm is forcing Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, to make an early departure from a global warming summit here in Denmark."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/...l-warming-trip/

Is it ever gonna stop getting better?

[JimD]

Is it ever gonna stop getting better?

Maybe when the voters in her congressional district wake up and smell the coffee??

Are we ready to open the debate on IQ tests for voter registration yet??

Or how about sending folks to represent us in DC based on a system modeled after jury duty? Jury duty is a responsibility rather than a career. Unfortunately we have looked the other way while "public service" slowly became a career.

[BodybyFisher]

You know, Mark Levin has been talking about the US turning into a Socialist Tyranny for a couple of years and he actually wrote a book called Liberty and Tyranny. We better wake up soon, it makes me sick that Chavez has a voice in all of this. Maybe this is all leading to a 2012 showdown and the predictions are not so far off

Here is the reference

http://sppiblog.org/news/is-the-european-p...te-going-global

Is the European police state going global?

From The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley in Copenhagen

Today the gloves came off and the true purpose of the “global warming” scare became nakedly visible. Ugo Chavez, the Socialist president of Venezuela, blamed “global warming” on capitalism – and received a standing ovation from very nearly all of the delegates, lamentably including those from those of the capitalist nations of the West that are on the far Left – and that means too many of them.

Previously Robert Mugabe, dictator of Rhodesia, who had refused to leave office when he had been soundly defeated in a recent election, had also won plaudits at the conference for saying that the West ought to pay him plenty of money in reparation of our supposed “climate debt”.

Inside the conference center, “world leader” after “world leader” got up and postured about the need to Save The Planet, the imperative to do a deal, the necessity to save the small island nations from drowning, etc., etc., etc.

Outside, in the real world, it was snowing, and a foretaste of the Brave New World being cooked up by “world leaders” in their fantasy-land was already evident. Some 20,000 observers from non-governmental organizations – nearly all of them true-believing Green groups funded by taxpayers – had been accredited to the conference.

However, without warning the UN had capriciously decided that all but 300 of them were to be excluded from the conference today, and all but 90 would be excluded on the final day.

Of course, this being the inept UN, no one had bothered to notify those of the NGOs that were not true-believers in the UN’s camp. So Senator Steve Fielding of Australia and I turned up with a few dozen other delegates, to be left standing in the cold for a couple of hours while the UN laboriously worked out what to do with us.

In the end, they decided to turn us away, which they did with an ill grace and in a bad-tempered manner. As soon as the decision was final, the Danish police moved in. One of them began the now familiar technique of manhandling me, in the same fashion as one of his colleagues had done the previous day.

Once again, conscious that a police helicopter with a high-resolution camera was hovering overhead, I thrust my hands into my pockets in accordance with the St. John Ambulance crowd-control training, looked my assailant in the eye and told him, quietly but firmly, to take his hands off me.

He complied, but then decided to have another go. I told him a second time, and he let go a second time. I turned to go and, after I had turned my back, he gave me a mighty shove that flung me to the ground and knocked me out.

I came to some time later (not sure exactly how long), to find my head being cradled by my friends, some of whom were doing their best to keep the police thugs at bay while the volunteer ambulance-men attended to me.

I was picked up and dusted me off. I could not remember where I had left my telephone, which had been in my hand at the time when I was assaulted. I rather fuzzily asked where it was, and one of the police goons shouted, “He alleges he had a mobile phone.”

In fact, the phone was in my coat pocket, where my hand had been at the time of the assault. The ambulance crew led me away and laid me down under a blanket for 20 minutes to get warm, plying me with water and keeping me amused with some colorfully colloquial English that they had learned.

I thanked them for their kindness, left them a donation for their splendid service, and rejoined my friends. A very senior police officer then came up and asked if I was all right. Yes, I said, but no thanks to one of his officers, who had pushed me hard from behind when my back was turned and had sent me flying.

The police chief said that none of his officers would have done such a thing. I said that several witnesses had seen the incident, which I intended to report. I said I had hoped to receive an apology but had not received one, and would include that in my report. The policeman went off looking glum, and with good reason.

To assault an accredited representative of a conference your nation is hosting, and to do it while your own police cameramen are filming from above, and to do it without any provocation except my polite, non-threatening request that I should not be manhandled, is not a career-enhancing move, as that police chief is about to discover to his cost.

Nor does this incident, and far too many like it, reflect the slightest credit on Denmark. We must make reasonable allowance for the fact that the unspeakable security service of the UN, which is universally detested by those at this conference, was ordering the Danish police about. The tension between the alien force and the indigenous men on the ground had grown throughout the conference.

However, the Danish police were far too free with their hands when pushing us around, and that is not acceptable in a free society. But then, Europe is no longer a free society. It is, in effect, a tyranny ruled by the unelected Kommissars of the European Union. That is perhaps one reason why police forces throughout Europe, including that in the UK, have become far more brutal than was once acceptable in their treatment of the citizens they are sworn to serve.

It is exactly this species of tyranny that the UN would like to impose upon the entire planet, in the name of saving us from ourselves – or, as Ugo Chavez would put it, saving us from Western capitalist democracy.

A few weeks ago, at a major conference in New York, I spoke about this tendency towards tyranny with Dr. Vaclav Klaus, the distinguished economist and doughty fighter for freedom and democracy who is President of the Czech Republic.

While we still have one or two statesmen of his caliber, there is hope for Europe and the world. Unfortunately, he refused to come to Copenhagen, telling me that there was no point, now that the lunatics were firmly in control of the asylum.

However, I asked him whether the draft Copenhagen Treaty’s proposal for what amounted to a communistic world government reminded him of the Communism under which he and his country had suffered for so long.

He thought for a moment – as statesmen always do before answering an unusual question – and said, “Maybe it is not brutal. But in all other respects, what it proposes is far too close to Communism for comfort.”

Today, as I lay in the snow with a cut knee, a bruised back, a banged head, a ruined suit, and a written-off coat, I wondered whether the brutality of the New World Order was moving closer than President Klaus – or any of us – had realized.

[WarrenJ]

. . . Unfortunately, he refused to come to Copenhagen, telling me that there was no point, now that the lunatics were firmly in control of the asylum.

While I dearly enjoy viewing the pain alarmist politically correct warmists are currently enduring, I'm forced to admit I've no clue as to whether GW is occurring or not. Is it AGW? Dunno.

If it IS occurring, and if it IS manmade, there's likely nothing we can do about it. China and India will see to that.

Rather than waste trillions of dollars on a hopeless cause, why not spend a few billions to improve health, minimize disease, provide clean drinking water, and yes, provide vaccinations.

And, someone (government, of course) please buy me an air conditioner.

Regards,

Warren

[Cadillac Jim]

Mercedes Benz

By Janis Joplin, Michael McClure and Bob Neuwirth

-------------

Oh lord won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz.

My friends all drive porsches, I must make amends.

Worked hard all my lifetime, no help from my friends.

So oh lord won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz

Oh lord won't you buy me a color TV.

Dialing for dollars is trying to find me.

I wait for delivery each day until 3.

So oh lord won't you buy me a color TV.

Oh lord won't you buy me a night on the town.

I'm counting on you lord, please don't let me down.

Prove that you love me and buy the next round.

Oh lord won't you buy me a night on the town.

Oh lord won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz

My friends all drive porsches, I must make amends.

Worked hard all my lifetime, no help from my friends.

So oh lord won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz.

Sources:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercedes_Benz_%28song%29

http://www.lyricsfreak.com/j/janis+joplin/mercedes+benz_20069845.html

And, now, an article that explains cap-and-trade, as I understand it, and much of the motivation behind the people at Copenhagen conference:

http://www.theonion.com/content/news/recession_plagued_nation_demands

Other motivation can be ascribed as hate-envy of the developed countries by others, as evidenced by the response to Hugh Chavez's talk:

http://www.thestar.com/news/sciencetech/environment/copenhagensummit/article/739523--blame-capitalism-chavez-tells-climate-summit

His remark "Capitalism is the road to hell" reportedly brought the house down. That says it all.

[WarrenJ]

Oh lord won't you buy me . . . a Mercedes Benz.

That's one of those songs that gets "stuck in my head" for days at a time. Curse you for bringing it up!

ETA: http://www.last.fm/music/Janis+Joplin/_/Mercedes+Benz

Regards,

Warren

[WarrenJ]

[Cadillac Jim]

The Math Doesn't Add Up for Al Gore as He Takes on the Climate-Gate E-mails

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,579948,00.html

Inconvenient Truth for Gore as Arctic Ice Claims Don't Add Up

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2009/12/15/inconvenient-truth-gore-claims-dont-add/